Reports were circulating that Vargas tipped the Holy Toledos! at 200 pounds around the holidays and then a full two weeks before the fight was down to the 154-pound limit. For a guy who always had trouble making weight I don’t remember seeing Vargas so light, so early, as a good sign. He may have left his best fight in the gym and if he is a half step behind Shane it will be a long night. Too bad this bout wasn’t made 5+ years ago, but it is still an interesting battle at this stage, although for different reasons. Mosley likely will be more comfortable at 154 than Vargas and I think EL Feroz is longer in the tooth ring-wise due to his layoffs and injuries. It has been 8 fights and 4 years since we saw Mosley knock anyone out as his “power boxing” was much more productive at the lower weights. Remember though, Sugar Shane, although no longer sweet, has only lost to two fighters (Wright and Forrest twice each) and has fought better opposition. I don’t think Vargas can implement the strategy that those two used, not at this point in his career, and Mosley will come on later in the fight to take the late rounds and win.

Joey Knish writes for The Sweet Science. To read more of his work